Currently, conflict-induced displacements have been a major global and national challenge owing to the existence of various conflicts and, as a result, the massive number of internally displaced peoples. According to a global report by Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, by the end of 2022, there were 71.1 million people who were internally displaced across the globe out of which 62.5 million were displaced due to conflict and violence, whereas the remaining IDPs were displaced by disasters.
The problem of internal displacement has also been among the predominant issues in Ethiopia in recent periods. Although Ethiopia has engaged in a political transition in April 2018 with a new leadership by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the scale and intensity of violent conflicts since then has been alarming (Yusuf, 2019). This, in turn, has resulted in a large-scale displacement in the country.
Compared with other drivers of internal displacement (such as disasters), conflicts and violence have remained to be the main factor for the vast majority of internal displacements in Ethiopia. For example, at the end of 2022, while 3.85 million IDPs in Ethiopia were displaced by conflict and violence, 717,000 IDPs had been displaced by disasters such as flooding and drought.
Being the major global and national challenge, conflict-induced displacement requires appropriate policy intervention which is based on a critical investigation of the causes, consequences, and management of the problem. Accordingly, the purpose of this policy brief is to provide an analysis of the state of conflict-induced displacement in Ethiopia in recent periods. In particular, it intends to give insights into the following fundamental questions: What is the magnitude of CID in the country? What are the causes and consequences of CID? What are the shortcomings in managing CID in Ethiopia? How it can be improved? This brief would significantly contribute to the prevailing attempts to address the problem of conflict-induced displacements by offering certain policy recommendations.
Conflict-Induced Displacement in Ethiopia: the Scale
The 2018 political transition in Ethiopia is accompanied by the growth of conflict-induced internal displacements. Violent conflicts have occurred in different parts of Ethiopia with the most notable being the war in Northern Ethiopia. Some cases of violent conflicts that led to mass displacements in Ethiopia includes the violence in Jigjiga and other towns in Somali regional state in August 2018; the violence in Metekel zone of Benshangul Gumuz region; the violence in Central Gondar, North Shoa and Oromo special zones of Amhara region; the violence in Wollega areas of Oromia region; and the war in Tigray region which had expanded to Amhara and Afar Regions in its course. Moreover, as Raleigh and Fuller indicated, “several conflicts are simultaneously occurring in Konso, West and Kelem Wollega, Gujji, Tigray, and the Oromo/Somali border area… which have resulted, among others, in the displacement of millions”.
While these conflicts have resulted in a large influx of in internal displacement in the country, various periodic reports on internal displacement identified the number of IDPs displaced by these conflict incidents in Ethiopia. For example, the violence in Jigjiga city has led to the displacement of 140,000 people in August 2018. Conflict has displaced around 748,499 IDPs in Gedeo and West Guji by August 2018, and an estimated 191,995 IDPs in Benishangul Gumuz region and the East and West Wellega zones of Oromia region by February 2019. Moreover, as of January 2022, 2.45 million IDPs were displaced in Amhara, Afar and Tigray regions due to the war in Northern Ethiopia.
In general, based on data extracted from the Global Internal Displacement Database, there have been a total of 12.96 million IDPs in Ethiopia as a result of conflict and violence between 2018 and 2022. The figure represents a five-fold increase over the 2.6 million IDPs displaced by disasters in the same period. From these figures, it can be understood that conflict and violence are the main drivers of internal displacement in Ethiopia, and it accounts for the displacement of 83.2% of the total IDPs population between 2018 and 2022. The following table illustrates the scale of internal displacement, due to both conflict and disasters, in Ethiopia since 2018.
Table 1: Total Number of IDPs in Ethiopia, 2018-2022
| Year | Conflict-induced IDPs year end | Disaster-induced IDPs at year end | Total IDPs at the end of year | Percentage of Conflict-induced IDPs |
| 2018 | 2,137,000 | 296,000* | 2,433,000 | 87.83% |
| 2019 | 1,324,000 | 390,000 | 1,714,000 | 77.24% |
| 2020 | 2,060,000 | 633,000 | 2,693,000 | 76.49% |
| 2021 | 3,589,000 | 579,000 | 4,168,000 | 86.1% |
| 2022 | 3,852,000 | 717,000 | 4,569,000 | 84.3% |
| Total | 12,962,000 | 2,615,000 | 15,577,000 | 83.2% |
(Source: Global Internal Displacement Database)
As the table shows, the pattern of conflict-induced displacement is not quite similar across the years and also regions in Ethiopia. There has been a relatively lower volume of (conflict-induced) displacements in 2019 than other periods. This is because, as the next section shows, there are far less violent events in the country in 2019 than there have been in other years. On the other hand, 2021 and 2022 have been flooded with a large influx of conflict-induced IDPs because of the war in northern Ethiopia, and those regions in the Northern Ethiopia are engulfed with greater displacements during those periods. In particular, the war has resulted in 1.7 million internally displaced people (IDPs) by April 2021, 2.1 million IDPs by July 2021, and 2.4 million IDPs by January 2022 in the Afar, Amhara, and Tigray regions, according to the IOM’s national displacement report.
What Are the Causes of Conflict-induced Displacement in Ethiopia?
Internal displacement has been caused by a multitude of factors. Sarah Lischer identifies root causes and proximate causes of internal displacement. The root causes include persistent political oppression, inequality, and historical enmity whereas political violence including riots, and civil war are the proximate cause of forced displacement. On the other hand, some scholars have indicated that the influx of conflict-induced displacements across the globe is associated with the nature and strategy of contemporary violent conflicts. In her seminal work of “New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era”, Mary Kaldor argues that “forcible displacement is a central methodology of new wars” (2012:213).
There are different factors that have led to violent conflicts in Ethiopia which, in turn, results in massive displacements in the country. Particularly, the ubiquity of violent conflicts in the country, ethnic federalism, and sub-national factors including the nature of local government and inter-regional contestations are the main causes of such displacements. What follows is a brief explanation of such causes.
Ubiquity of Violent Conflicts
There exist a large number of violent conflicts in Ethiopia in recent periods which have led to intense internal displacement in the country. According to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), there were a total of 3,760 violent events in Ethiopia between April 2018 and December 2022 with the majority (2,242) being battles. There have been varying degrees of these violent incidents throughout this period. In this regard, 336 violent events had occurred in 2018, 104 in 2019, 556 in 2020, 1535 in 2021 and 1230 in 2022.
The trends of violent conflicts in Ethiopia have also shown the rise of one-sided violence against civilians in different parts of the country in the post-2018 period. This one-sided violence has been committed by both state and non-state actors. Based on the date extracted from ACLED, there have been a total of 1,287 incidents of violence against civilians with 8,483 reported fatalities in Ethiopia in the same period. These incidents can be disaggregated across the years as 207 in 2018, 53 in 2019, 188 in 2020, 391 in 2021, and 448 in 2022.
The prevalence of such conflicts events has led to the massive displacement of people in Ethiopia. For example, the war in Northern Ethiopia has resulted in massive displacements in the country. In particular, it has resulted in 2.4 million IDPs by January 2022 in the Afar, Amhara, and Tigray regions.
Practice of Ethnic Federalism
Since 1991, Ethiopia has adopted an ethnic-based federal system. It has laid down the foundation for the establishment of administrative regions and political practices based on ethnic identity. While it has paved the way for the recognition of ethnocultural diversity in the country, ethnic federalism has also been the main factor for ethnic confrontation and conflict in the country (Bayu, 2021; Taye, 2017; Mengie, 2015). On the other hand, flawed ethnic federalism has been the main cause and driver of violent extremism in Ethiopia (Adeto, 2020).
The ethnic federal system in Ethiopia does not accommodate minorities in different regions and made them victims of politics. It assigns one region/land/ to particular ethnic groups, and different ethnic groups are devoid of ownership of land as well as engagement in administrative and political processes in these regions. For example, Article 2 of the revised constitution of Benishangul-Gumuz region stated that the ownership of the region belongs to five ethnic groups; Berta, Gumuz, Shinasha, Mao, and Komo.
Owing to the restructuring of regional and local administration along ethnic lines, autochthonous conflicts, for control over land and power, between those who claim themselves as indigenous and those considered as recent arrival/settler have developed which in turn led to internal displacements in the country. In general, the adoption of ethnic federalism has been the major structural cause of conflict-induced displacement in Ethiopia.
Sub-national Factors: Nature of Local Government and Disputes over Administrative Boundaries
The prevalence of violent conflicts and the displacement of people in Ethiopia are associated with the absence of democratic institutions and governance at regional and local levels of government in the country. Security architectures as well as administrative institutions are predominantly occupied by one ethnic group at the expense of the prevalence of multi-ethnic identities at regional and local levels. In this regard, it is argued that “the restructuring of administration merely along ethnic lines goes against the realities” (Bayu, 2021). Of course, ethnic-based federal structures have played a key role in the prevalence of non-representative and one-ethnic-group dominant administrative structures at the regional and local levels. As a result, the various ethnic groups are without representation and participation in political and administrative affairs. In certain contexts, local/regional administrations and security institutions have played a major role behind the displacement of peoples, who are identified as ‘other’ ethnic groups, in various parts of the country.
Moreover, there have been contestations between different regional states over the limit of administrative boundaries and, as a result, disputed territorial claims along the borders. In this regard, there have been disputes between the Amhara region and Tigray regions over Wolqait and Raya areas, between Oromia and Somali regions, Afar and Somali regions, and so on. These conflicts led to massive displacement of people in the country. For example, the conflict along Oromia-Somali regional boundary has led to the displacement of around 1 million people as of mid-April 2018. Similarly, though intensified during the war in Northern Ethiopia, there have been displacements of people from the contested Wolqayit and Raya areas since 2018.
Consequences of Conflict-induced Displacement
There are multifaceted adverse effects of CID especially on the displaced individuals. These effects have psychological, economic, and human-right dimensions. Psychologically, due to CID, displaced individuals develop traumas, becomes hopeless about their status-quo and fear for return as well as their future survival. Economically, there have been destruction of properties and livelihoods of displaced persons. Not only from their areas of residence, IDPs are also displaced from their labour. Besides, there are high costs of living in temporary settlements.
In terms of human rights, there are serious violations of the basic rights of displaced persons. For example, the electoral rights of IDPs has been side-lined in the 2021 general elections in the country as the specific mechanisms to conduct elections in the context of displacement were absent resulting in the non-participation of IDPs in election. Moreover, due to CID, the rights displaced persons to life, freedom of movement and choosing of residence have been challenged, and they are also exposed to dehumanization.
Moreover, CID significantly affects the host community and the government at large. CID also adversely affects the host communities as they are burdened with sheltering the IDPs and also emergency support provisions to IDPs especially in the early days of temporal settlement in post-displacement. In certain contexts, there are tensions between the host community and IDPS since the latter, seeking to permanently settle therein, requests for land grants in the host communities.
Besides, as incidents of CID frequently occur, there will be a shrinking of government’s crisis response capability through the provision of emergency supports to displaced persons. Besides, CID has also strained the intergovernmental relations between regions especially when there is trans-regional displacement of peoples accompanied by the ethnic factor and disputes over territories.
Management of Conflict-Induced Displacements in Ethiopia
The management of conflict-induced displacement has been a challenging experience and involves a multitude of actors with various activities. The actors include federal and regional governments, religious leaders and elders, humanitarian agencies, youth associations, universities, social media activists, the media, local populations, and administrations as well as the diaspora community.
With regard to activities, there have been various activities which are undertaken in due course of managing conflict-induced displacement in the country. These activities, which are listed below, can be broadly categorized in to five main themes: controlling the violence, establishing temporary shelters, activities related to humanitarian supports (those activities listed below from c to g), inter-governmental workshops, and returning displaced individuals to their areas of residence with few finances and equipment. These include:
- a. Controlling violence that led to displacement by federal and regional security institutions
- b. Establishment of temporary IDPs centres/shelters in various areas
- c. Provision of 15kg wheat per month and individual (though not sustained and reduced over time) to IDPs by the government
- d. Organizing fundraising activities in support of IDPs
- e. Collection of humanitarian supports including food, crops, clothes, blankets, foam, and money from different sections of the society
- f. The distribution of these humanitarian supports to IDPs
- g. Celebration of holiday events with IDPs
- h. Inter-governmental consultations between regions
- i. Returning IDPs to their areas of residence
- j. Upon return, provision of reestablishment money (8,000-10,800 Ethiopian Birr) and 40-42 iron sheets for a roof to rebuild destroyed houses
However, despite these efforts by various actors, the management of conflict induced displacements in Ethiopia falls short of addressing the underlying causes of internal displacement and maintaining sustainable peace for displaced people. As a result, there is a recurrence of conflict-induced displacements, which is becoming a common trend in the country.
Policy Recommendations
In order to address the structural and proximate causes as well as mitigate the consequences of conflict-induced displacement in Ethiopia, the following recommendations would be quite helpful.
To the federal government:
- Revisiting the ethnic-based federal structure and the federal constitutions as the structural causes of conflict-induced displacement in the country.
- Due consideration to the basic interests of displaced peoples while managing the ubiquity of violent conflicts (controlling violence) and returning IDPs in their areas of residence.
- Establishing functional inter-governmental mechanisms to address trans-regional displacements as well as the disputes between regions that led displacements.
- Developing a multi-sectoral strategy that involves psychological, economic, human rights and other dimensions will be quite important to mitigate the deleterious effects of conflict-induced displacements on displaced peoples.
- Facilitating the cooperation between international humanitarian organizations and national actors in addressing the problem of conflict-induced IDPs in Ethiopia.
To local/regional government:
- Revisiting the regional constitutions and establishing an all-inclusive governance and security institutions
- Strengthening the relations between IDPs and host communities (or local populations in areas of residence) through various consultative workshops
- Identify local/region-based initiatives and capabilities to address the problem of conflict-induced displacements.
- In due course of collecting humanitarian supports for conflict-induced IDPs, it will be better to establish a single platform that involves a wide range of civil societies.
To humanitarian agencies:
- Ensuring the adequacy of emergency supports to displaced peoples, during displaced periods and upon return to their area of residence, in line with the multiple effects of conflict-induced displacement.
- Transcending the interventions in CID beyond temporal emergency supports and focus on sustainable solutions to the problem by designing long-term development projects for displaced peoples as well as addressing the structural causes of displacement.
KEYWORDS: Displacement, conflict, Ethiopia, management
Yirga Abebe Damtie ([email protected]) is currently a Ph.D. Candidate at the Institute for Peace and Security Studies of Addis Ababa University. He has more than 10 years of professional experience in education and research at universities in Ethiopia. .
The author expresses his sincere gratitude to the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and the African Research Universities Alliance (ARUA) for providing the research grant and facilitating this study.