Some hard facts
The facts are well known. The numbers of persons displaced in the context of disasters and adverse impacts of climate change are huge. In 2024, the number of such displacements amounted to more than 45 million. Hazards associated with weather events and global warming are the main triggers. The overwhelming majority of disaster-displaced persons remain within their own country. While their livelihoods are interrupted and assets lost, many internally displaced persons (IDPs) are able to return after some days, weeks or months. Millions, however, remain in protracted internal displacement for years. While the international community provides much-needed humanitarian assistance at least when disaster impacts are large-scale, this second group of IDPs all too often has no realistic prospects for solutions that would end their displacement and allow them to rebuild their lives in safety and dignity.
Important realities are being ignored by relevant stakeholders or, while accepted, not translated into action. We are likely to overshoot the 1.5 C goal enshrined in the Paris Agreement and declared by the International Court of Justice as creating legally binding obligations of conduct, including the duty to ensure that their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) “are capable of achieving the temperature goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” (Advisory Opinion, para. 245). As global warming intensifies and sea levels rise, repeated flooding, desertification, prolonged drought, and permafrost thaw render more and more areas uninhabitable; as a result, this second group will grow. Higher global temperatures, according to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will mean that in the coming decades, more areas will reach the limits of adaptation and therefore become uninhabitable. As a consequence, the number of persons in protracted internal displacement is likely to increase.
Neither affected countries nor the international community are really prepared to face this challenge. There is a clear mismatch between its nature and magnitude and the insufficient, predominantly humanitarian responses provided by the international community. This problem is further exacerbated by the current funding crisis and a problematic orientation of the current UN reform process. The victims of such neglect will be people and communities who have least contributed to global warming.
We know what to do, but achievements are at risk of being undone
In recent years, significant conceptual progress has been made towards more effective ways to address protracted internal displacement and find durable solutions for displaced persons. At the centre is the idea that we need community-based and government-led measures to manage and resolve disaster displacement in an enabling environment, in which the governments of affected States take primary responsibility for their populations, while the international community supports rather than replaces national and local actors and provides them with reliable access to long-term financial support.
To make this vision a reality, the UN has adopted the principle that humanitarian actors should build on the capacity of displaced persons and local communities from the outset in order to reduce humanitarian dependency and put them on a pathway towards self-sufficiency, thereby working on solutions from the start. The UN Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Internal Displacement and his Action Agenda called for a shift from primarily humanitarian to development-oriented approaches to durable solutions for IDPs. And since the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit, consensus on the so-called nexus approach has grown as effective results can only be achieved if humanitarian, development, climate and peace actors work hand in hand.
While these concepts have only been partially put into practice, the current funding crisis now seriously jeopardises the progress that has been made. As argued in a previous blog, the present funding crisis affecting both the humanitarian and development sectors, a reform process that is inward-looking and lacks an overall vision of the UN’s role in the current and foreseeable situation, and the prioritisation of life-saving humanitarian action that may lead to widespread humanitarian dependency in the long term, creates an unfavourable environment for increased efforts to achieve durable solutions.
A strategy for change
Crises always offer opportunities. To leverage them, solid strategies are required. Such a strategy should build on the following elements:
First, taking numbers seriously and recognizing internal displacement as loss and damage: Accepting that, particularly due to the growing number of areas becoming uninhabitable as a result of the effects of climate change, we are facing an ever-greater challenge that can only be overcome if we prepare for it now, is a first step towards the necessary changes. At the same time, the challenge must not be viewed solely in numerical terms. Displacement is more than a forced change of location, and durable solutions are more than return, settlement elsewhere in the country, or local integration where people found refuge. At its core, displacement is about the loss of security, property and possessions, economic independence, social ties, access to basic services and political participation. This is particularly evident in cases of protracted internal displacement, which is more than a question of duration. In such situations, IDPs are prevented from, or unable to, take the steps needed to reduce displacement-specific vulnerability, impoverishment, and marginalisation, and to regain a self-sufficient and dignified life. In practice, this often means years of dependence on humanitarian assistance; restricted access to livelihoods; insecure tenure in informal settlements or camps; and limited access to education and basic services, with devastating intergenerational effects on children growing up in displacement.
Disaster- and climate-induced displacement also constitutes a form of loss and damage in climate policy terms, as recognised by the inclusion of displacement within the scope of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage and the Santiago Network under the UN climate regime. The relationship between loss and damage and displacement is complex: Displacement is both a consequence of loss and damage and itself a source of economic and non-economic loss and damage, given the multiple losses and heightened vulnerabilities that displaced persons experience. Moreover, displacement can create—and in cases of protracted displacement, perpetuate—vulnerability to future disaster impacts, for instance, where IDPs have to settle in camps or irregular settlements in flood prone areas. Durable solutions must therefore be closely linked to broader efforts to address loss and damage, climate adaptation, and resilience-building.
Second, viewing solutions as a process of rebuilding shattered lives by reversing displacement–specific losses: It is important to recognise that durable solutions are not primarily an issue of location (return, local integration, settlement elsewhere in the country), but about reversing displacement-specific losses and restoring rights in sustainable ways. Durable solutions are achieved when IDPs no longer have specific assistance and protection needs linked to their displacement and can enjoy their human rights without discrimination on account of their displacement. This requires, among other things, long-term safety and security; an adequate standard of living, including access to housing, water, food, health care and education; access to livelihoods and employment; restitution of or compensation for lost property; and access to documentation, justice, and effective remedies.
Third, focussing on systemic rather than incremental change: In recent years, various international initiatives have led to a multitude of concepts and pilot approaches that go beyond purely humanitarian measures to end internal displacement. Despite some progress, however, these changes remain isolated and fragmented. Against the backdrop of drastic funding cuts in particular, current discussions and reform efforts should focus on measures that remove systemic barriers and create targeted incentives to enable the transition from predominantly humanitarian approaches to climate-resilient, rights-based and development-oriented solutions. Done well, such reforms can reduce costs and enhance effectiveness even with limited resources.
Fourth, creating incentives for national and local actors: The predictability of technical and financial support from the international community is a key incentive for national and local actors to assume their primary responsibility for their population and implement development-oriented approaches for durable solutions in disaster contexts. In addition to facilitating access to long-term financing (see below), the international community should clearly define the forms of support it offers to States in dealing with disaster and climate displacement. Instead of a multitude of fragmented, project-based and mandate-driven interventions, the humanitarian, development and climate protection actors of the United Nations should bundle their instruments into a coherent “toolbox”. This should consist of a limited number of proven measures that have been shown to bring about substantial and sustainable improvements for populations affected by displacement.
Conversely, measures taken by the affected States, such as the adoption of appropriate normative frameworks (development plans, laws, policies, strategies) and the establishment of institutional mechanisms for whole-of-government approaches, are important to increase the willingness of donors to make long-term commitments and provide substantial support.
Fifth, making the nexus a reality: Since the United Nations World Humanitarian Summit in 2016, there has been broad consensus that humanitarian actors, development organisations, local authorities and the private sector must work together across institutional and mandate-specific boundaries (the so-called nexus). The aim is to overcome dependence on humanitarian assistance and promote the self-reliance of IDPs, particularly through multi-year programmes that have a genuine and lasting impact. With few exceptions, however, this aspiration has not been adequately implemented to date. The current UN-80 reform process has so far done little to address this challenge. At the same time, the plannedreview of mandates and institutional responsibilities offers a unique opportunity to establish mechanisms and working methods that systematically and effectively link short-term emergency aid with long-term development, climate and peace policies.
Sixth, ensuring predictable funding: People in countries that have contributed least to global warming are particularly affected by climate-induced internal displacement. Based on the Paris Agreement and the 2025 climate opinion of the International Court of Justice, among other things, the international community has an obligation to provide financial support for efforts to find lasting solutions.
The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, established in 2022 (COP27), recognizes internal displacement as a form of loss and damage. However, the Fund can only make a substantial contribution if it has a robust strategy for regular and adequate replenishment on the required scale. While contributing to the Fund is presently voluntary, the recent Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice highlights that States with high emissions that fail to exercise due diligence in pursuing the 1.5°C goal may become legally liable to provide compensation to countries most affected by climate impacts. (ICJ, paras. 452 ff., 457). While this does not mean that specific States are legally obliged to finance responses to internal displacement in the absence of judicial decisions, the Advisory Opinion strongly suggests that the scope for discretion in financing loss and damage, including internal displacement, is narrowing. Combined with the systematic integration of internal displacement into the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund and other relevant financing instruments, this can create a sustainable financial basis for supporting affected countries working on durable solutions for IDPs.
The increased use of pooled financing mechanisms that align and bring together actors from the humanitarian, development, climate and peace sectors around common goals, including durable solutions, is also promising.
Finally, leveraging the influence of like-minded donor countries to drive change: Close cooperation between key donor countries in Europe and beyond is a crucial prerequisite for the necessary systemic change. Without coordinated external political and financial pressure, the United Nations will hardly be able to achieve the required changes on its own. The strong focus of individual organisations on their respective mandates and institutional competition for scarce resources continues to undermine cooperative approaches. Donor countries can and should change these dynamics in a targeted manner by setting common priorities, promoting nexus programming, and actively calling for systemic reforms that go beyond necessary bureaucratic measures.
Recommendations
Disaster-affected countries should recognize disaster- and climate-induced internal displacement as a key development and climate challenge. They should also systematically integrate displacement and durable solutions into national and local development plans, as well as into national strategies and action plans for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. At the institutional level, they should establish or strengthen high-level, interministerial institutions and processes (whole-of-government approach), with clear responsibilities for the coordinated prevention and resolution of internal displacement. Strengthening the role of local authorities and involving IDPs and host communities in planning and implementation is crucial. Operationally, affected countries should prioritise development and climate-related measures for durable solutions, in particular through local development plans that are area-based, thereby taking equal account of IDPs and host communities as well as appropriate framework conditions and targeted support for climate-resilient livelihoods and economic prospects, especially where previous livelihoods have been permanently lost.
The United Nations and its organizations, agencies and programsneed to systematically transition from humanitarian to development-oriented approaches for durable solutions that are human rights-based, gender-responsive, climate-resilient and peace-oriented. Despite the current funding crisis, humanitarian actors should focus on the “solutions from the start” approach endorsed by the United Nations Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), taking into account the specific needs and capacities of IDPs and strengthening national and local systems in a targeted manner. The UN80 reform process, with its mandate review pillar, provides a unique opportunity to systematically and more effectively link short-term emergency aid with long-term measures in the areas of development, climate and peace. Furthermore, more clearly linking work on internal displacement with climate mechanisms, in particular the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage and the Santiago Network, would substantially facilitate real progress.
Donor countries should leverage their influence to drive change by providing multi-year, predictable support for nationally led strategies for durable solutions, including through flexible financing instruments for area-based basic services (health, education, etc.), social protection systems for particularly vulnerable IDPs, and climate-resilient livelihoods. They should take steps to ensure that climate finance – including support provided by the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage and other relevant mechanisms – is predictable and accessible for measures related to internal displacement, such as disaster-resilient urban planning, planned resettlement and livelihood diversification. Finally, agreements between donor countries to finance joint programmes of United Nations organisations rather than isolated individual projects would be an effective tool to ensure that humanitarian aid, development cooperation, climate action and peacebuilding actors work hand in hand to achieve durable solutions at scale for persons internally displaced in the contexts of disasters and adverse effects of climate change.
Walter Kälin is emeritus professor of constitutional and international law and the Envoy of the Chair of the Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD). This blog is based on a study prepared in late 2025 as a Richard von Weizäcker Fellow at the Bosch Academy in Berlin, which will be published by PDD in due course. The views expressed in this piece are those of the author. They should, in particular, not be attributed to the staff, officers or trustees of the Robert Bosch Stiftung.
KEYWORDS: Internal Displacement, IDPs, Climate Change, Loss and Damage, United Nations
Selected Bibliography
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